Friday, July 27, 2012

A proxy indicator for the Intellectual Capital of nations

I recently came across the book “Intellectual Capital of Nations” by Prof. Leif Edvinsson and Prof. Carol Yeh-Yun Lin and their associated research paper titled “National Intellectual Capital: comparison of the Nordic countries” which I downloaded from www.corporatelongitude.com. Both the research paper and the book present a comparative study by the authors on the Intellectual Capital of 40 leading nations in the world. Based on the outcomes of their study, the authors arrived at the conclusion that the Nordic region consisting of the five countries of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden has the most Intellectual Capital per capital among any other region in the world, which includes amongst others industrialized regions such as North America and Western Europe and regions of the emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, India and China.

A comparative study of the Intellectual Capital of Nations, even though limited to only 40 countries in this study, is no doubt very useful. It provides a macro level view of how countries are managing their intangible assets compared to one another. This information can be gainfully used by multiple target audiences such as Multi National Corporations, Global Investment Funds, Private Equity and Hedge Funds, Multi lateral lending agencies such as IMF and World Bank, and many other institutions for a variety of purposes, such as for making investment decisions. In an increasingly globalized world this information can be also used to determine which countries have a relative competitive advantage over other countries. Hence the question naturally arises, how did the authors go about making this interesting comparison?

As the authors describe in their paper, they first deliberated on the dimensions for representing the Intellectual Capital of countries and finalized four dimensions viz. Human Capital, Market Capital, Process Capital and Renewal Capital. Next, using a two step filtering process, they then identified seven indicators for each of these types of Capital as follows:

Human CapitalMarket CapitalProcess CapitalRenewal Capital
Skilled laborCorporate TaxBusiness competition environmentBusiness R&D spending
Employee trainingCross-border ventureGovernment efficiencyBasic research
Literacy rateCulture opennessIntellectual Property Right protectionR&D spending/GDP
Higher education enrollmentGlobalizationCapital availabilityR&D researchers
Pupil-teacher ratioTransparencyComputers in use per capitaCooperation between universities and enterprises
Internet subscribersImage of countryConvenience of establishing new firmsScientific articles
Public expenditure on educationExports and Imports of servicesMobile phone subscribersPatents per capita

Thereafter the authors collected (perhaps painstakingly) data for these indicators for each of the 40 countries for a period of 12 years from 1994 until 2005 from the OECD database and the World Competitiveness Yearbook. Next they normalized the data where required and added one more dimension for Financial Capital to the existing four, represented by a normalized form of GDP per capita. They finally aggregated and tabulated their findings, a summary of which is presented below:
NoCountryIC ScoreIC rankIC+FC ScoreIC+FC rank
1Finland29.47139.031
2Sweden29.25238.882
3Switzerland28.46338.243
4Denmark28437.694
5United States27.64537.525
6Singapore26.8636.656
7Iceland26.13735.87
8Netherlands25.84835.578
9Canada25.56935.2710
10Norway25.451035.459
11Australia24.691134.3411
12Austria24.261233.9612
13Japan24.131333.7314
14Ireland24.081433.7813
15Germany23.861533.4815
16Belgium23.321632.9616
17Taiwan23.171732.5517
18New Zealand22.831832.1918
19United Kingdom22.51932.1119
20France21.642031.2420
21South Korea20.042129.2821
22Malaysia19.152227.8125
23Hungary19.06232823
24Spain19.032428.522
25Italy18.362527.924
26Chile18.272626.9728
27Portugal18.062727.2826
28Czech Republic17.982827.1427
29Greece16.532925.8929
30Thailand16.023024.1730
31South Africa15.413123.7831
32Russia15.093223.6632
33China15.063322.5536
34Poland14.833423.633
35Philippines14.53521.8839
36Turkey14.43362334
37Mexico14.133722.8835
38Brazil13.983822.4137
39India13.73920.6640
40Argentina13.344021.9938
* IC = Intellectual Capital, FC = Financial Capital

While I consider this work as ground-breaking, two thoughts have troubled me since. Why has anyone not followed up on this work by extending it to more than the 40 countries studied here? And more importantly, why has anyone not updated the data on the 40 countries itself from 2006 onwards? The answer to the first question is provided partly by the authors in their paper itself, where they mention that they had to remove 7 additional countries from their list because of a large number of missing indicators. Hence, perhaps data for all the remaining countries will be even more difficult to find. As to the second question, the only answer that makes sense is perhaps the fact that fetching and compiling data for such a study is perhaps too time intensive and cannot be undertaken unless it is a sponsored effort. Incidentally, the authors do mention that their effort for this paper was sponsored.

As mentioned earlier, there is no doubt that a comparative Intellectual Capital ranking of nations can be highly useful to a variety of target audiences. The question that arises therefore is how we can obtain such a ranking without going through the rigor inherent in the method presented by the authors. Can we for instance, use a proxy indicator? In other words, can we identify a commonly available macro data point for nations on which the nations would have more or less the same rank as on their Intellectual Capital? Even if this indicator was not 100% accurate, it could be useful in providing us a quick and dirty ranking of the Intellectual Capital of Nations which would be enough for the purpose of most target audiences.

As I reflected on what such an indicator could be, I wondered whether it could be GDP/capita. But higher GDP/capita is a consequence of higher Intellectual Capital, rather than a cause. Could it then be flow of inward Foreign Direct Investment? But again, inward FDI would be a consequence of higher Intellectual Capital than being a cause. And then it struck me like a bolt. It had to be Electricity consumption/capita. After all, electricity is the root cause of all modern advancements and indeed is the cause for the birth of the knowledge era. Without electricity, our civilization would still be spending a bulk of its time on menial chores such as gathering wood and lighting fires for warmth and for cooking. Electricity has freed us up from these chores to such an extent that we can hardly imagine modern life anymore without it. About the only time we realize the importance of electricity in our lives is during a power outage when we have to start hunting for match boxes and candles to cut through the darkness and suffer through sweltering temperatures since we have been accustomed for years to the comfort of air conditioned residences and offices, all due to the miracle of electricity. In short, electricity has made human kind highly productive over the course of the past century. It has taken care of our routine mundane needs, freeing us for performing higher order activities. And that we have. I imagine that mankind has made more inventions in the past one century than in all of its existence prior to that. Isn’t that a phenomenal achievement? And isn’t it attributable mostly to the invention of electricity? If so, it stands to reason that the more electricity a nation consumes per capita, the more its population will be freed up for performing higher order activities and generate more Intellectual Capital in the process.

I had the hypothesis. The next step was for me to test it. On the one hand, I had the Intellectual Capital of Nations as of 2005 as described earlier. I had to correlate this with the electricity/capita of these countries as of 2005 and check whether I could establish a high degree of correlation between the two. If so, it would prove my hypothesis. I obtained the electricity/capita of these 40 nations from nationmaster.com and used the Excel RANK function to rank the consumption of these countries from 1 to 40. I placed these ranks alongside the IC and IC+FC ranks as shown below.
NoCountryIC RankIC+FC rankElectricity consumed/capita (KWh) Electricity consumption rank
1Finland11154614
2Sweden2214860.35
3Switzerland337833.711
4Denmark446281.4119
5United States55128746
6Singapore667828.5512
7Iceland7727470.91
8Netherlands886629.9617
9Canada910167253
10Norway10924636.12
11Australia111110812.17
12Austria12127317.8415
13Japan13147624.413
14Ireland14135792.1221
15Germany15156614.5818
16Belgium16167919.9310
17Taiwan17178805.269
18New Zealand18189404.968
19United Kingdom19195789.9122
20France20207417.0814
21South Korea21217299.0216
22Malaysia22253105.6531
23Hungary23233566.9529
24Spain24225599.3223
25Italy25245239.9825
26Chile26282964.732
27Portugal27264388.8528
28Czech Republic28275835.420
29Greece29294891.0326
30Thailand30301832.435
31South Africa31314493.6727
32Russia32325446.0224
33China33361684.1738
34Poland34333154.6930
35Philippines3539564.2139
36Turkey36341790.0536
37Mexico37351778.0737
38Brazil38371976.8834
39India3940446.2940
40Argentina40382296.4333

Next, I used the Excel CORREL function to find the Pearson correlation coefficient between the IC and IC+FC ranks with the Electricity consumption/capita ranks. I found that the IC v/s Electricity consumption ranks had a Pearson coefficient of 87.15% whereas the IC+FC v/s Electricity consumption ranks had a Pearson coefficient of 88.37%. Since by definition, any coefficient value above 80% signifies a strong correlation between the two sets, my hypothesis was proved.

Now that I have established that the Electricity consumption/capita can be used as a proxy indicator for ranking the Intellectual Capital of nations, it is straightforward exercise to check where the remaining nations rank on their Intellectual Capital. We just have to look at their Electricity consumption/capita. Moreover in the years ahead, we will perhaps be able to forecast how the Intellectual Capital ranking of nations will change by studying which nations are investing more into their energy infrastructure compared to their peers.

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Intellectual Capital analysis of change in Indian IT Leadership

The top four Indian IT companies – TCS, Infosys, Wipro and HCL Technologies - have declared their results for the quarter ending March 2012. While TCS and HCL have surpassed analyst expectations, Wipro and especially Infosys have disappointed. The markets have been severely harsh on Infosys in particular, dropping it by about 13% in a single day on the 13th April when it declared its quarterly results. For a company which has been the face of Indian IT around the world for decades, this was quite the drubbing. It is the fifth straight quarter when Infosys has missed its own forecasts, a very unusual territory for this IT giant. Not without reason therefore, Infosys has lost its claim as the industry bellwether and leader of the Indian IT industry, a position that is now claimed unequivocally by TCS. In fact many analysts have downgraded Infosys further. JP Morgan has placed Infosys fourth in the pecking order behind TCS, Wipro and HCL Technologies. CLSA downgraded the scrip to ‘Underperform’ from ‘Outperform’ and Deutsche Bank revised it to ‘Hold’ from its earlier ‘Buy’ rating. Technology analysts have gone further. For instance, Mint published a full page article on Infosys recently in its newspaper asking whether Infosys’s dream run has ended. For a company that employs more than 150,000 people globally, this is a serious question that begs a deeper analysis. Let’s do that using Intellectual Capital as the basis.


Let’s look at TCS first. The Intellectual Capital analysis of TCS for the past four years can be seen online here. The Knowledge Basis portion of the analysis is reproduced in the chart below.

This chart depicts the Knowledge Basis of TCS for the past four years, measured every quarter. Knowledge Basis (KB) is just the ratio of the Intellectual Capital(IC) of the company to its Intrinsic worth (IW). In other words KB = IC/(IC+NW), where IW = (IC + NW) and NW represents the Net worth of the company. As can be seen from the chart, the Knowledge Basis of TCS for the past four years has been more or less steady around the 83% mark. This is another way of saying that 83% of all assets inside TCS are knowledge assets and this number has been more or less very steady over the course of the past four years.


Now let’s turn to Infosys – its Intellectual Capital analysis can be seen online here and its Knowledge basis chart is reproduced below.


We find in this chart that the Knowledge Basis of Infosys was also around the 83% level from Jun 2008 until Dec 2009. That is when it started sliding southwards, dropping to around 74% in Dec 2011 before recovering slightly to 76% in Mar 2012. Even counting the 2% rise in the latest quarter, Infosys is still down 7% from its own benchmark of 83%. Described in other words, this means that only 76% of all assets inside Infosys are Knowledge assets compared to 83% for TCS. Considering that Knowledge assets are significantly more productive than physical or financial assets, is it a surprise to anybody that Infosys has not been delivering stellar results lately? The decline started two years ago in 2010 and has continued steadily since then, although the latest quarter results have shown an uptrend.


This brings us back to the question – has Infosys’s dream run ended? For now, it certainly has. Considering the myriad organizational displacements inside the company recently, this was perhaps inevitable. But Infosys is far from being down and out. A Knowledge Basis of 76% is very healthy even if it is low compared to TCS. It implies that an overwhelming majority of all assets inside Infosys are still knowledge assets, explaining why the company generates more than Rs 1000 cr every quarter by way of Economic value. The good news now is that the market has given away its premium for Infosys stock and the stock is now trading around its fair value ever since its latest quarter results came out. In contrast, the market has taken a strong liking for TCS and has assigned it a premium of more than 30% of its fair value. Will TCS be able to live up to its favored status? Time will tell for sure. But one thing is clear in my mind, while TCS is certainly the better run business, if you had to choose between these two great companies for your investment portfolio, Infosys is the better stock to buy at the moment!